How close is Brazil to another recession?

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Brazil’s latest quarterly GDP report (with the first estimate of full 2022 figures), released a week ago, confirmed a rather strong expansion last year. Annual GDP grew 2.9 percent (the second-fastest pace in a decade), well above the generally gloomy view that prevailed at the start of 2022. 

At that time, the median forecaster in the Central Bank’s weekly survey was penciling in a meager 0.3 percent growth. Economic activity was mostly driven by the services sector, which was recovering from the rapid reopening that followed the previous year’s massive vaccine drive. 

Unfortunately, the sequential quarterly growth that led to…

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