Financial markets’ mistrust of Lula, in numbers

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Midway through 2002, with Brazilian union leader and leftist figurehead Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva leading the presidential polls, a group of Goldman Sachs analysts created what they called the “Lulameter” — a mathematical model to “quantify the probability of a Lula victory that [was] being priced by currency markets.” Well, the groundhog has emerged from its hole and seen his shadow, and it’s 2002 all over again.

Local financial analysts have not given Lula the benefit of the doubt in his return to the Brazilian presidency. Whenever Lula has spoken out against fiscal austerity and the Central Bank’s…

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